# A December Fed hike is priced; January now tests whether one move is enough DataSnack nightly brief · Finance · 10 Nov 2026 *The hike market jumped 21.3 pts to 96.9% while the January market fell 17.0 pts to 60.5%, with oil the swing input.* Another 2026 hike is at 96.9%, up 21.3 pts, as January fell 17.0 pts to 60.5%. Pricing now turns on October CPI and oil, which set whether December is a step or an endpoint. The Fed has moved from a pause to a continuation trade-off. A December hike is priced in, and the open question is whether one move is enough. - Another Fed hike in 2026: 96.9% (24h +21.3 pts; DataSnack's model in seven days 63.8%) - Fed decisions (Sep–Dec): 97.1% (24h +20.6 pts; model in seven days 96.9%) - Fed decision in January: 60.5% (24h -17.0 pts; model in seven days 73.8%) - WTI crude hit in November: 30.5% (24h -15.0 pts; 24h volume 186153) The committee has already moved. It hiked a quarter point in September, then held at 3.75%-4% in October by a 10-2 vote. Both dissenters, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, wanted another hike, so the internal pressure runs toward tightening, not cuts. Data supports that read. October payrolls rose 165,000 against about 65,000 expected, and September inflation was 3.7%. Fed funds futures price roughly an 84% chance of a December hike, and BofA says only an indisputably soft 0.1% core reading would change the calculus. The second-order effect shows in January. Warsh rejects forward guidance, so each release carries more weight. Oil is the swing input. WTI was near $86 after Trump said he would hold off on new Iran strikes, while Rapidan Energy puts the chance of fighting resuming at 80%. Cooler energy would soften headline CPI, the main driver of September's 3.7%. The model's record on Fed questions is mixed, and the agents argue over whether hawkish chatter adds signal. A weaker risk tone spreads beyond rates. The model in seven days is 24.7%. What to watch: - 10 Nov 2026: October CPI release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern; consensus headline +0.3% m/m, core +0.2%. A 0.1% core would break the December hike view. - 9 Dec 2026: Next FOMC decision; Fed market closes 2026-12-10 with the market at 96.9%. - 27 Jan 2027: First 2027 meeting; statement due 2:00 p.m. Eastern, tests whether December was enough. ## Sources - [Fed holds rates steady despite concerns over inflation](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/28/fed-interest-rate-decision-october-2026.html) (cnbc.com, 28 Oct 2026) - [Meeting calendars and information](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) (federalreserve.gov, 30 Oct 2026) - [Federal Reserve makes interest rate decision ahead of midterms](https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-october-28-2026) (foxbusiness.com, 28 Oct 2026) - [Fed Holds Rates Steady Despite ‘Elevated’ Inflation](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/10/28/business/fed-meeting-warsh-interest-rates) (nytimes.com, 28 Oct 2026) - [Federal Reserve Monetary Policy \| U.S. Bank](https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/federal-reserve-tapering-asset-purchases.html) (usbank.com, 30 Oct 2026) - [US Inflation Report to Test Fed Rate Hike Odds After 165,000 Jobs Added in October](https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/us-inflation-report-to-test-fed-rate-hike-odds-after-165-000-jobs-added-in-october) (kucoin.com, 7 Nov 2026) - [NY Fed survey: Layoff fears highest since Covid crash, inflation expectations steady](https://cryptobriefing.com/ny-fed-survey-layoff-fears-highest-since-covid-crash-inflation-expectations/) (cryptobriefing.com, 9 Nov 2026) - [October CPI Report: What the Inflation Data Is Expected to Show](https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/october-2026-cpi-report-what-to-expect) (kiplinger.com, 9 Nov 2026) - [US CPI preview: Wall Street sees cooler inflation but the Fed may not blink](https://investinglive.com/news/us-cpi-preview-wall-street-sees-cooler-inflation-but-the-fed-may-not-blink/) (investinglive.com, 10 Nov 2026) - [United States Fed Funds Interest Rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate) (tradingeconomics.com, 29 Oct 2026) - [Fed meeting recap: Warsh says central bank will host fewer rate-setting meetings in future years](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/28/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html) (cnbc.com, 28 Oct 2026) - [Midterm results may add uncertainty to the Fed’ next rate decision — here are 5 money moves to consider before December](https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/midterm-results-may-add-uncertainty-135000425.html) (finance.yahoo.com, 8 Nov 2026) ## Models in this brief - [Another Fed rate hike in 2026?](https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:c16d1f289bdd): the market's number 97%; DataSnack's model in seven days 64% - [Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)](https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:d31140b1bfc7): the market's number 97%; DataSnack's model in seven days 97% - [Fed Decision in January?](https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:c5dd6e57dfe9): the market's number 61%; DataSnack's model in seven days 74% - [What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in November 2026?](https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:fd156c595ca0): the market's number 31%; DataSnack's model in seven days 28% - [Anthropic IPO Date](https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:2ca080c81476): the market's number 5%; DataSnack's model in seven days 25% --- Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/brief/c876480c-6679-4696-bbc8-26ad8ec710ba · Updated 10 Nov 2026 14:30 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.