Saudi airspace closed by...?
DataSnack's model puts this at 5% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 8%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A Saudi airspace closure is a tail risk that fades as the window shortens
A Saudi closure would cut a major aviation corridor, so even a small chance matters to airlines and shippers. The model's case rests on time decay taking the market's 8% to 6% in seven days, with Red Sea disruption the main upside risk.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 8% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 5%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabian Airspace (The Jeddah Flight Information Region (FIR)/OEJD) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such cl…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 38 days: off by 4.4 points against 5.0 points for standing still; closer on 21 of 38 days
- Fitted on 43 days of history
How the model works
With no closure, the chance of closure by a date falls as the window shortens. Red Sea shipping disruption stories, a sign of Houthi escalation, add to it.
- With no closure this week, the chance of a closure by year-end shrinks at 2 of the pace of a constant hazard. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 2, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
- Each unit rise in the Red Sea disruption reading over two weeks moves the log-odds of a Saudi airspace closure by 0.052 in log-odds. DataSnack's author expected 0.5 in log-odds; the data say 0.052 in log-odds ± 0.4, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- Saudi airspace closed by...? · Yes: 8% on 10 Nov 2026
- Reading: ships halting or rerouting around Bab el-Mandeb: 0.28 score on 7 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 6%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 6%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 4%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 4%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 5%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 5%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 5% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 8%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:041189bb7089 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:41 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.