Spain General Election Winner

DataSnack's model puts this at 84% seven days from now (7 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 84%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

PP's lead rests on a fragmented left and a first-past-the-seat-count rule

A seat-plurality rule across 350 Congress seats rewards the largest bloc, so the PP's 88% shows how the market reads the field. The model's case rests on holding that chance flat, with momentum near 0 in log-odds.

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 84% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 84%
• The market closes: 30 Nov 2026
• How it resolves: Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) nationwide in this election, attributed as set out below. If two or m…
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 23 days: off by 4.4 points against 4.4 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 23 days
• Fitted on 30 days of history

How the model works

Nothing is ranked yet because the market is too new to measure, so the simplest honest model holds the PP chance where it is, with a slider for momentum from its own recent move.

• About 0 in log-odds of the market's own recent move in log-odds carries on over the next week. DataSnack's author expected 0 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 1, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

Sources

• Spain General Election Winner · PP: 84% on 11 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 89%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 89%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 91%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 89%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 84%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 83%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 84% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 84%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet? Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:05d188ac32e6.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:05d188ac32e6 · Updated 7 Nov 2026 06:50 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.