Next French Presidential Election
DataSnack's model puts this at 45% seven days from now (7 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 45%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Le Pen's lead is a product of a split field, not a majority
The market puts Le Pen at 45%, so the run-off is priced as a test of rival consolidation. The model's case rests on holding her near 43%, with 164 days left and an error of 2.9 points a day, level with no change.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 45% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 45%
- The market closes: 19 Apr 2027
- How it resolves: The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second rou…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 2.9 points against 2.9 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 60 days
- Fitted on 332 days of history
How the model works
With 164 days to a scheduled election and no ranked series that carries a French mechanism, the model keeps Le Pen's chance where it is, with a small allowance for momentum in the market's own recent move.
- About 0 in log-odds of the market's own recent move in log-odds carries on over the next week. DataSnack's author expected 0.1 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.12. A rough rule.
Sources
- Next French Presidential Election · Marine Le Pen: 45% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 43%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 45%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 45%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 45%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 46%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 45%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 45% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 45%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:085fbe2b0a83 · Updated 7 Nov 2026 03:20 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.