Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by...?

DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Polymarket) is 22% (10 Nov 2026). It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Rubio's exit odds are a slow-burn tail risk, not a countdown to a departure

A Secretary of State exit would reset foreign policy leadership, so the 36% matters beyond this market. The model's case rests on decay as the window shortens, putting the chance at 34% in seven days absent a new event.

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 22% (the market)
• DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
• The market closes: 1 Apr 2027
• How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marco Rubio ceases to be U.S. Secretary of State for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Marco Rubio's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Marco Rubio and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

How the model works

With no ranked inputs to measure, the chance of Rubio leaving by March 31, 2027 is assumed to decay as the window to the close shortens. Without a new event, the number drifts down slightly each day.

• The market's chance shrinks as the window to the close shortens, at 1 times the pace of a constant hazard. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.

Sources

• Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by...? · March 31, 2027: 22% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 33%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 27%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 25%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 24%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 23%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 21%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 22%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:0fcfe6c16d9e · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:11 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.