Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions Winner
DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Kalshi) is 6% (10 Nov 2026). It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 17 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A course with no history and a points race keep the Austin field flat
A flat field shows how little signal a first-time course gives ahead of 2027 status. The model's case rests on Ghim holding at 6%, since the market sat there on both 2026-11-09 and 2026-11-10 and the Nov 12-15 rounds will move it.
The numbers
- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 6% (the market)
- DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
- The market closes: 29 Nov 2026
- How it resolves: If Jackson Koivun wins the Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 17 Nov 2026.
How the model works
With too little history to measure any input, the simplest honest model keeps Ghim's chance where the market has it, with an adjustable share of its latest daily move carried forward. The tournament runs Nov 12-15, so the number will jump as rounds are played, but the direction cannot be foreseen from the available series.
- About 0 in log-odds of the market's latest daily move in Ghim's chance carries into next week, starting from the market's own level. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
Sources
- Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions Winner · Doug Ghim: 6% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 17 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 6%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 6%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 17 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:10d02d30e0a0 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 12:34 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.