Gemini Carbon released on...?
DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Polymarket) is 100% (10 Nov 2026). It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Google, not the technology, decides when Carbon reaches the public
How Google stages a security-capable model sets a template for how such models reach the public. The model's case rests on a 37% chance in seven days against 94% now, with no dated signal for when access opens.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 100% (the market)
- DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
- The market closes: 1 Dec 2026
- How it resolves: On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10). This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which "Carbon", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google. A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or succe…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 1 days: off by 31.4 points against 31.4 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 1 days
- Fitted on 7 days of history
How the model works
Carbon is announced and priced, but only cyber defenders have access and Google has given no developer date. With too little history to rank inputs, the model holds the market's chance for this date where it is.
- With Carbon announced but its public date unset, the market's chance for this day carries over, with about 0 in log-odds of its recent log-odds move continuing. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
Sources
- Gemini Carbon released on...? · November 10: 100% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 37%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 40%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 43%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 49%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 57%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 90%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 100%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:117980108d18 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 12:29 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.