# Where will US dollar index be in seven days?

Where will US dollar index be in seven days? DataSnack's model says 103 index points (13 Nov 2026); it is 103 index points now. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 20 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**The dollar index follows Fed expectations, but the link is barely measurable**

The dollar's path matters for import costs, earnings abroad and capital flows, and the Fed outlook is its main supposed driver. The model's case rests on 103 index points in seven days, a 0.556-point daily miss against 0.57 for no change.

## The numbers

- US dollar index now: 103 index points
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 103 index points
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 20 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 47 days: off by 0.524 against 0.57 for standing still; closer on 27 of 47 days
- Fitted on 249 days of history

## How the model works

The dollar index starts from its latest close. Its weekly change follows the chance of no Fed cuts in 2026 and the 5-year Treasury yield, both of which rise when a Fed hike looks likelier and inflation runs hot.

- Each rise in the chance that the Fed makes no cuts in 2026 lifts the dollar index by 10.8 over the following week. DataSnack's author expected 18.0; the data say 10.8 ± 25, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
- Each rise in the 5-year Treasury yield, as a Fed hike looks likelier, lifts the dollar index by 3.88 over the following week. DataSnack's author expected 3; the data say 3.88 ± 4.4, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

## Fed by

- [Fed cuts in 2026: standing near zero](https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:58bf281821c4) (its number in seven days): Each rise in the chance that the Fed makes no cuts in 2026 lifts the dollar index by 10.8 over the following week. DataSnack's author expected 18.0; the data say 10.8 ± 25, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
- [5-year Treasury yield](https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:e2fc9679c857) (its number in seven days): Each rise in the 5-year Treasury yield, as a Fed hike looks likelier, lifts the dollar index by 3.88 over the following week. DataSnack's author expected 3; the data say 3.88 ± 4.4, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

## Feeds

- [Euro in dollars](https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:b537bcfa55b6) (its number now): Each point the dollar index gains moves the euro by about -0.0104 dollars over the following week. A rough rule.

## Sources

- US dollar index close (Yahoo Finance): 103 index points on 12 Nov 2026
- Fed cuts in 2026: standing near zero: DataSnack's number for seven days ahead: 98% on 13 Nov 2026
- 5-year Treasury yield: DataSnack's number for seven days ahead: 4.95% on 13 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 20 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 13 Nov 2026 for 20 Nov 2026: 103 index points

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says 103 index points seven days from now.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 20 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

**Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet?** Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:140369eeaa82.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:140369eeaa82 · Updated 13 Nov 2026 05:39 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.