Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
DataSnack's model puts this at 7% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 8%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Nasdaq-100's year-end close hangs on the Fed and an AI policy overhang
The Nasdaq-100 closed at 27,921.13 on Nov 9, and its level sets the tone for rate and AI-policy risk across equities. The model's case rests on a bin's chance giving back part of its latest one-day move, with a 4% view in seven days.
The numbers
- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 8% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 7%
- The market closes: 31 Dec 2026
- How it resolves: If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 27500 and 27999.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 0.6 points against 0.7 points for standing still; closer on 13 of 60 days
- Fitted on 286 days of history
How the model works
This bin's chance tends to give back a share of its latest one-day move over the following week, with the scan's window of 1 day, slope -0.5 and r -0.44. With 56 days left and no ranked outside signal, the market's own mean reversion is the best-supported mechanism.
- About -0.486 in log-odds of the latest one-day move in this range's chance (in log-odds) is reversed over the next week. DataSnack's author expected -0.5 in log-odds; the data say -0.486 in log-odds ± 0.13. A rough rule.
Sources
- Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026? · 27,500 to 27,999.99: 8% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 4%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 6%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 5%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 6%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 5%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 6%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 7% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 8%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:151e2bd62364 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:50 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.