# Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?

DataSnack's model puts this at 7% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 8%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**Nasdaq-100's year-end close hangs on the Fed and an AI policy overhang**

The Nasdaq-100 closed at 27,921.13 on Nov 9, and its level sets the tone for rate and AI-policy risk across equities. The model's case rests on a bin's chance giving back part of its latest one-day move, with a 4% view in seven days.

## The numbers

- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 8% ([the market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnasdaq100y))
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 7%
- The market closes: 31 Dec 2026
- How it resolves: If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 27500 and 27999.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 0.6 points against 0.7 points for standing still; closer on 13 of 60 days
- Fitted on 286 days of history

## How the model works

This bin's chance tends to give back a share of its latest one-day move over the following week, with the scan's window of 1 day, slope -0.5 and r -0.44. With 56 days left and no ranked outside signal, the market's own mean reversion is the best-supported mechanism.

- About -0.486 in log-odds of the latest one-day move in this range's chance (in log-odds) is reversed over the next week. DataSnack's author expected -0.5 in log-odds; the data say -0.486 in log-odds ± 0.13. A rough rule.

## Sources

- Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026? · 27,500 to 27,999.99: 8% on 10 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 4%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 6%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 5%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 6%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 5%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 6%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says 7% seven days from now.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Kalshi) is 8%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:151e2bd62364 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:50 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.