Iran full airspace closure by...?
DataSnack's model puts this at 22% seven days from now (9 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 20%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A full Iranian airspace closure is a tail risk the blockade standoff keeps alive
Airspace closure is a gauge of escalation in a standoff where the US blockade is the main lever. The model's case rests on time decay plus a link to the blockade-end market, giving 25% in seven days against 20% now.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 20% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 22%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commerc…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 30 days: off by 4.5 points against 5.4 points for standing still; closer on 17 of 30 days
- Fitted on 98 days of history
How the model works
The chance of a full closure drifts down as the window to year-end shortens, and moves against the week's change in the market for the US ending its blockade, a sign that talks are progressing.
- With no event this week, the chance shrinks as the window to year-end shortens, at 2 unitless of a constant hazard. DataSnack's author expected 0.5 unitless; the data say 2 unitless. Fits past data roughly.
- When the market for the US ending its blockade by November 30 rises, this market's number tends to fall, by about -0.887 in log-odds in log-odds for each unit of its rise. DataSnack's author expected -0.55 in log-odds; the data say -0.887 in log-odds ± 0.29, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- Iran full airspace closure by...? · December 31: 20% on 10 Nov 2026
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? · November 30: 16% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 26%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 27%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 26%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 31%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 22%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 21%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 22% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 20%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:168ab9457299 · Updated 9 Nov 2026 06:12 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.