Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
DataSnack's model puts this at 92% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 91%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A China meeting is priced as near-certain because no other venue is live
The number matters because it treats a Trump–Putin meeting as a China-hosted event, leaving 10% for no meeting by December 31. The model's case rests on the market's own momentum plus airline fares, and it says 91% in seven days.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 91% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 92%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye co…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 3.8 points against 5.2 points for standing still; closer on 42 of 60 days
- Fitted on 159 days of history
How the model works
The market's own chance for China carries a little of its recent momentum, and the strongest ranked outside input, airline fares, nudges it on top.
- About 0.0734 in log-odds of the market's recent two-week move in log-odds carries into the next week. DataSnack's author expected 0.281 in log-odds; the data say 0.0734 in log-odds ± 0.049. A rough rule.
- About 0.00175 in log-odds of log-odds move in the market's number for each index point that airline fares rose over two weeks. DataSnack's author expected 0.00234 in log-odds; the data say 0.00175 in log-odds ± 0.0011. A rough rule.
Sources
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? · China: 91% on 10 Nov 2026
- Consumer prices, airline fares (FRED): 327 index on 1 Sep 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 88%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 90%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 90%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 92%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 91%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 93%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 92% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 91%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:19efd4ce32aa · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:50 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.