2028 Democratic presidential nominee

DataSnack's model puts this at 26% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 26%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Ossoff leads an open field as the market weighs electability over fame

The market puts Ossoff at 25% after Democrats won the House and Senate, with over two dozen campaigns weighing runs. The model's case rests on a pullback: past one-week surges have been partly reversed the next week.

The numbers

• The market's number (Kalshi) now: 26% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 26%
• The market closes: 7 Nov 2028
• How it resolves: If Jon Ossoff wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 60 days: off by 1.2 points against 1.3 points for standing still; closer on 14 of 60 days
• Fitted on 393 days of history

How the model works

Ossoff's nomination chance jumped after his Georgia landslide. Over the past year, a week's rise in this market has tended to be partly reversed the week after. The model takes that pullback from the market's own recent move.

• After a week's move in the market, about -0.364 in log-odds of that move is reversed over the following week. DataSnack's author expected -0.35 in log-odds; the data say -0.364 in log-odds ± 0.16. A rough rule.

Sources

• 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Jon Ossoff: 26% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 27%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 26%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 25%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 25%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 25%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 26%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 26% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 26%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:1a75172283e9 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:05 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.