Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?
DataSnack's model puts this at 91% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 91%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A long window, not any one candidate, holds these run odds near certainty
The market shows how early the field forms after the midterms. The model's case rests on a flat decay with no announcement, 91% in seven days, and a 3.0 point daily error against 3.0 for no change.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 91% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 91%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2028
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 3.0 points against 3.0 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 60 days
- Fitted on 91 days of history
How the model works
A by-date question: with nothing announced, the chance of a run by the deadline decays as the window shortens. The market's own short-term moves tend to partly reverse, so a short-window pull-back sits on top of the decay.
- With no announcement this week, the chance of a run by the deadline drifts at 0 of the constant-hazard rate as the window shortens. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0. A rough rule.
- After the market's own recent move, about 0 in log-odds of it reverses over the next week. DataSnack's author expected -0.275 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds. Fits past data closely.
Sources
- Who will announce Presidential run before 2028? · Andy Beshear: 91% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 91%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 91%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 91%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 91%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 91%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 91%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 91% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 91%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:1b7032145c9f · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:51 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.