Next Press Secretary?

DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Polymarket) is 14% (8 Nov 2026). It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

A spokesperson's job is priced as a succession race with no vacancy

Press secretary turnover signals how stable the White House's message operation is. The model's case rests on no momentum: it holds Kelly at 20% in seven days and misses by 3.1 points a day, the same as assuming no change.

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 14% (the market)
• DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
• The market closes: 1 Jan 2028
• How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the next individual who the White House announces has been picked to be the White House Press Secretary who replaces Katie Zacharia by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A person being announced as an acting or interim holder of the position will not count for purposes of this market. In the event that no individual is chosen to replace Katie Zacharia, or the role is abolished, by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement has occurred, subsequent withdrawals or replacement announcements will not…
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 8 days: off by 3.1 points against 3.1 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 8 days
• Fitted on 18 days of history

How the model works

Nothing is ranked yet, so the model starts from where the market is and lets its own recent momentum carry forward or pull back, as fitted from the data.

• About 0 in log-odds of the market's recent move in log-odds carries on over the next week. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.

Sources

• Next Press Secretary? · Anna Kelly: 14% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 20%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 20%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 17%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 13%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 13%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 14%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 14%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:1b79fe0c1ec9 · Updated 8 Nov 2026 03:25 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.