CPI in November

DataSnack's model puts this at -0.04% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is -0.03%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

November CPI is the first clean annual reading, and energy sets its tone

The first clean reading after the shutdown gap shapes the Fed's path, with the market putting a reading above 0.0% at 33%. The model's case rests on the market reversing part of its two-week move, to -0.04%.

The numbers

• The market's number (Kalshi) now: -0.03% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: -0.04%
• The market closes: 10 Dec 2026
• How it resolves: If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.3% (single-decimal) in November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 60 days: off by 0.05 points against 0.05 points for standing still; closer on 31 of 60 days
• Fitted on 173 days of history

How the model works

The implied monthly CPI tends to reverse part of its recent two-week move; nothing else is read.

• About -0.424 of the market's own move over the past two weeks carries into the following week, a negative value meaning it is reversed. DataSnack's author expected -0.34; the data say -0.424 ± 0.27. A rough rule.

Sources

• CPI in November (the market's number): -0.03% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: -0.21%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: -0.01%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: -0.04%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: -0.01%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 0.03%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: -0.08%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says -0.04% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is -0.03%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:1c128cf26f56 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:06 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.