# CPI in November

DataSnack's model puts this at -0.04% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is -0.03%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**November CPI is the first clean annual reading, and energy sets its tone**

The first clean reading after the shutdown gap shapes the Fed's path, with the market putting a reading above 0.0% at 33%. The model's case rests on the market reversing part of its two-week move, to -0.04%.

## The numbers

- The market's number (Kalshi) now: -0.03% ([the market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcpi))
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: -0.04%
- The market closes: 10 Dec 2026
- How it resolves: If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.3% (single-decimal) in November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 0.05 points against 0.05 points for standing still; closer on 31 of 60 days
- Fitted on 173 days of history

## How the model works

The implied monthly CPI tends to reverse part of its recent two-week move; nothing else is read.

- About -0.424 of the market's own move over the past two weeks carries into the following week, a negative value meaning it is reversed. DataSnack's author expected -0.34; the data say -0.424 ± 0.27. A rough rule.

## Sources

- CPI in November (the market's number): -0.03% on 10 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: -0.21%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: -0.01%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: -0.04%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: -0.01%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 0.03%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: -0.08%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says -0.04% seven days from now.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Kalshi) is -0.03%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:1c128cf26f56 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:06 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.