US-Iran nuclear deal?
DataSnack's model puts this at 50% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 50%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A deal hinges on who moves first on the blockade, and the status quo is cheaper
A US-Iran deal would reset Hormuz shipping and Gulf security, yet each side wants the other to move first on the blockade. The model's case rests on slow decay without news: 49% in seven days against 50% now.
The numbers
- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 50% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 50%
- The market closes: 20 Jan 2029
- How it resolves: If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 3.7 points against 3.8 points for standing still; closer on 29 of 60 days
- Fitted on 203 days of history
How the model works
The chance of a deal by 2029 drifts down as time passes without one. It moves up when news readings show US-Iran nuclear talks progressing.
- With no deal this week, the chance of a deal by the close shrinks at 2 of the constant-hazard pace as the window shortens. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 2. Fits past data roughly.
- Each full point the reading of US-Iran nuclear talks rises over two weeks moves the deal chance by about 0.135 in log-odds in log-odds. DataSnack's author expected 0.165 in log-odds; the data say 0.135 in log-odds ± 0.12, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- US-Iran nuclear deal? · Before Jan 20, 2029: 50% on 10 Nov 2026
- Reading: US and Iran negotiating nuclear terms of a deal: 0.562 score on 9 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 49%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 46%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 49%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 47%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 53%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 48%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 50% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 50%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:1cf7f33cfcfc · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:35 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.