Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?

DataSnack's model puts this at 27% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 27%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

A Houthi entry into Saudi Arabia hinges on raids and strikes, not the calendar

A ground entry would signal a wider Saudi-Houthi war with Riyadh and oil sites in play. The model's case rests on same-day raid and strike readings and a pull back from the two-week move; it misses by 7.5 points, against 7.2 for no change.

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 27% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 27%
• The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
• How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. "Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Saudi Arabia, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or tempor…
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 39 days: off by 7.5 points against 7.2 points for standing still; closer on 18 of 39 days
• Fitted on 53 days of history

How the model works

The chance of an entry by the deadline decays as time runs out, the market's own two-week move partly reverses, and same-day readings of Houthi raids on Saudi posts and strikes on Riyadh and oil sites lift it.

• With no new event, the chance of entry shrinks as the window closes, at 0 of a constant-hazard pace. DataSnack's author expected 0; the data say 0, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
• About -0.514 in log-odds of the market's own move over the past two weeks carries into the next week, so a negative value means a pull back. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
• About 0.979 in log-odds of each day's rise in the reading of Houthi raids on Saudi posts carries into the next week here. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
• About -0.46 in log-odds of each day's rise in the reading of Houthi attacks on Riyadh, Aramco sites and Saudi airports carries into the next week here. DataSnack's author expected 0.5 in log-odds; the data say -0.46 in log-odds ± 1, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

Sources

• Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...? · December 31: 27% on 10 Nov 2026
• Reading: Houthi cross-border raids on Saudi posts: 0.222 score on 9 Nov 2026
• Reading: Houthi attacks on Riyadh, Aramco sites and Saudi airports: 0.93 score on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 46%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 55%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 79%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 76%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 80%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 26%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 27% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 27%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:1e5074c6aca8 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 17:24 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.