# Recession this year?

DataSnack's model puts this at 2% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 2%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**Strong 2026 growth makes this a narrow test; the risk sits in 2027**

The 3% chance matters because the contract tests only 2026, while rate hikes and AI spending put the real risk in 2027. The model's case rests on Q3 growth of 3.4%, a shrinking window and fading one-day jumps, giving 2%.

## The numbers

- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 2% ([the market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecssnber))
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 2%
- The market closes: 31 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 0.9 points against 1.0 points for standing still; closer on 28 of 60 days
- Fitted on 393 days of history

## How the model works

The chance decays as the window to the close shrinks. Day-to-day jumps in the market's number tend to partly fade within a week, so the model leans against the latest move.

- With Q3 growth at 3.4% and no event this week, the chance shrinks as the window closes, at 1.89 of a constant-hazard pace. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 1.89. A rough rule.
- A one-day jump in the market's number tends to partly reverse, with about -0.375 in log-odds of the move carried into next week. DataSnack's author expected -0.4 in log-odds; the data say -0.375 in log-odds ± 0.16. A rough rule.

## Sources

- Recession this year? · Yes: 2% on 10 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 3%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 3%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 3%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 3%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 2%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 1%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says 2% seven days from now.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Kalshi) is 2%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:1ef4ee291338 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:16 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.