Measles cases in 2026?

DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Kalshi) is 7840 number (7 Nov 2026). It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Measles in 2026 is priced near 7,000, and the dispute is over the upper tail

The case count gauges vaccination coverage and public health capacity, so where it lands matters beyond this market. The model's case rests on a ladder-implied count of 7290 with almost no momentum, from only 2 days of history.}

The numbers

• The market's number (Kalshi) now: 7840 number (the market)
• DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
• The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
• How it resolves: If the number of measles in 2026 is above 5000, then the market resolves to Yes.
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 2 days: off by 225 against 225 for standing still; closer on 0 of 2 days
• Fitted on 14 days of history

How the model works

With too little history to measure which inputs matter, the model holds the ladder's implied 2026 case count where it is and lets a reader slide in some momentum from its recent move.

• The implied case count carries about 0 of its last week's move into next week, otherwise it stays where it is. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.

Sources

• Measles cases in 2026? (the market's number): 7840 number on 11 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 7290 number
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 7110 number
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 7650 number
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 7730 number
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 7700 number
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 7670 number

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 7840 number.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet? Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:1fdf07752142.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:1fdf07752142 · Updated 7 Nov 2026 06:21 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.