# Measles cases in 2026?

DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Kalshi) is 7840 number (7 Nov 2026). It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**Measles in 2026 is priced near 7,000, and the dispute is over the upper tail**

The case count gauges vaccination coverage and public health capacity, so where it lands matters beyond this market. The model's case rests on a ladder-implied count of 7290 with almost no momentum, from only 2 days of history.}

## The numbers

- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 7840 number ([the market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmeasles))
- DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: If the number of measles in 2026 is above 5000, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 2 days: off by 225 against 225 for standing still; closer on 0 of 2 days
- Fitted on 14 days of history

## How the model works

With too little history to measure which inputs matter, the model holds the ladder's implied 2026 case count where it is and lets a reader slide in some momentum from its recent move.

- The implied case count carries about 0 of its last week's move into next week, otherwise it stays where it is. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.

## Sources

- Measles cases in 2026? (the market's number): 7840 number on 11 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 7290 number
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 7110 number
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 7650 number
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 7730 number
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 7700 number
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 7670 number

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Kalshi) is 7840 number.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

**Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet?** Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:1fdf07752142.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:1fdf07752142 · Updated 7 Nov 2026 06:21 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.