Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?
DataSnack's model puts this at 4.16% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 4.15%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A Fed that dislikes guidance leaves December's hold-or-hike call to oil and CPI
The rate path matters for every borrower and asset price, and the market puts a hike in December at 79.5%. The model's case rests on an implied rate near 4.04%, with a 4.05% reading in seven days, after Brent fell 13% in a week.
The numbers
- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 4.15% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 4.16%
- The market closes: 9 Dec 2026
- How it resolves: If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 0.09 points against 0.09 points for standing still; closer on 29 of 60 days
- Fitted on 273 days of history
How the model works
The ladder's implied rate sits near 4.04%, between a hold at 4.00% and a hike to 4.25%. Over a week it mostly stands still, nudged by the market's own read of the Fed's guidance on cuts versus holds.
- Each shift in the market's odds of a large December cut over two weeks moves the implied December rate by about 1.8, as the Fed's own guidance shifts the hold-versus-hike split. DataSnack's author expected 1.67; the data say 1.8 ± 1.3. A rough rule.
Sources
- Fed decision in Dec 2026? · Cut >25bps: 1% on 10 Nov 2026
- Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting? (the market's number): 4.15% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 4.06%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 4.05%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 4.08%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 4.07%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 4.08%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 4.12%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 4.16% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 4.15%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:21b064fa9fad · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:51 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.