Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by...?

DataSnack's model puts this at 16% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 18%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Hegseth's tenure turns on Trump, because the House can charge but not remove

A Hegseth exit would show how Trump handles Congress after the midterm loss, with the $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget tied to him. The model's case rests on the reading of exit reports, with the market at 16% for Nov 30 against its 33%.

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 18% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 16%
• The market closes: 1 Dec 2026
• How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Fitted on 32 days of history

How the model works

With no exit this week the chance of an exit by Nov 30 decays as the window shortens. A short-window change in the news reading of reports that Hegseth is on his way out then adds to the log-odds.

• With no exit this week, the chance shrinks as the window closes, at about 0 times a constant-hazard pace. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
• Each point of rise in the reading of reports that Hegseth is leaving moves the log-odds by about 0.8 in log-odds. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.

Sources

• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? · Yes: 18% on 10 Nov 2026
• DataSnack's reading: Hegseth on his way out: 0.02 score on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 33%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 21%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 19%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 28%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 26%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 17%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 16% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 18%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:23834360949b · Updated 10 Nov 2026 13:15 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.