# Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

DataSnack's model puts this at 6% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 30%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**A shrinking window to Dec 31 is cutting Emanuel's odds of going first**

An early announcement in a split Democratic field would shape how the 2028 race is read. The model's case rests on the window closing at 1.09 of a constant-hazard pace, with DeSantis and Beshear signals moving it further: 10% in seven days.

## The numbers

- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 30% ([the market](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027))
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 6%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media,…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 4.2 points against 5.1 points for standing still; closer on 40 of 60 days
- Fitted on 320 days of history

## How the model works

Emanuel's chance of announcing by year-end shrinks as the window to Dec 31 narrows. Moves in the other market's DeSantis launch chance, and in news readings that a rival like Beshear is launching a 2028 run, shift the number beyond that decay.

- With no announcement this week, the chance shrinks as the window closes, at 1.09 of a constant-hazard pace. DataSnack's author expected 1.09; the data say 1.09. A rough rule.
- About -0.964 in log-odds of each move in the other market's DeSantis launch chance carries into Emanuel's number a week later. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
- About 8.36 in log-odds of each rise in news that Beshear is running carries into Emanuel's number a week later. DataSnack's author expected 9.3 in log-odds; the data say 8.36 in log-odds ± 6.6, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

## Sources

- Who will announce Presidential run before 2027? · Rahm Emanuel: 30% on 10 Nov 2026
- Who will announce Presidential run before 2028? · Ron DeSantis: 91% on 10 Nov 2026
- Reading: Beshear announces a 2028 run: 0.025 score on 9 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 38%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 29%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 10%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 11%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 9%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 6%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says 6% seven days from now.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Polymarket) is 30%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:24a37e24b503 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:41 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.