2028 U.S. Senate winner?
DataSnack's model puts this at 97% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 87%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Senate 2028 odds are tracking this year's midterm results, not 2028 fundamentals
A 2028 Senate call matters because it shows how far this year's midterm outcome carries forward. The model's case rests on stories that Democrats won Senate control (1.61 log-odds per unit), and it says 93% in seven days.
The numbers
- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 87% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 97%
- The market closes: 1 Feb 2029
- How it resolves: If the Democratic party has won control of the Senate in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 46 days: off by 5.0 points against 5.7 points for standing still; closer on 14 of 46 days
- Fitted on 128 days of history
How the model works
The market's chance that Democrats win Senate control in 2028 starts from its latest level. It is nudged by the change in the reading that Marshall won Kansas, then by the change in the reading that Democrats won Senate control, both over the last 7 days.
- Each unit rise in the reading that Marshall won Kansas moves the market's log-odds by about 0 in log-odds over the following week. DataSnack's author expected -2.98 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 2.8. A rough rule.
- Each unit rise in stories saying Democrats won Senate control moves the market's log-odds by about 1.61 in log-odds over the following week. DataSnack's author expected 1.71 in log-odds; the data say 1.61 in log-odds ± 0.8, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- 2028 Senate winner · Democratic party: 87% on 10 Nov 2026
- Reading: Marshall declared winner in Kansas Senate race: 0.025 score on 10 Nov 2026
- Reading: stories say Democrats won Senate control: 0.908 score on 9 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 89%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 89%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 90%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 93%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 93%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 97%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 97% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 87%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:24bb917da3b9 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:57 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.