Unemployment in November
DataSnack's model puts this at 4.13% seven days from now (8 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 4.11%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
The market sees unemployment settling between 4.1% and 4.2%
The labor market's direction shapes the Fed's position and the hiring outlook, and the ladder puts the rate between 4.1% and 4.2%. The model's case rests on a partial reversal of last week's move, which gives 4.16% in seven days.
The numbers
- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 4.11% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 4.13%
- The market closes: 4 Dec 2026
- How it resolves: If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.7% in November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 44 days: off by 0.03 points against 0.04 points for standing still; closer on 29 of 44 days
- Fitted on 54 days of history
How the model works
The ladder's implied unemployment rate has tended to partly reverse its last week's move, so the model starts from today's level and applies that pull back.
- Each point the implied rate moved over the past week is followed by a move of -0.411 of that size in the next week, which means a partial reversal. DataSnack's author expected -0.4; the data say -0.411 ± 0.2, fitted on the same days the replay scores. Fits past data roughly.
Sources
- Unemployment in November (the market's number): 4.11% on 11 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 4.16%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 4.14%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 4.09%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 4.10%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 4.12%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 4.12%
- Made 11 Nov 2026 for 18 Nov 2026: 4.12%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 4.13% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 4.11%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet? Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:27356e8f2fee.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:27356e8f2fee · Updated 8 Nov 2026 10:15 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.