# Unemployment in November

DataSnack's model puts this at 4.13% seven days from now (8 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 4.11%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**The market sees unemployment settling between 4.1% and 4.2%**

The labor market's direction shapes the Fed's position and the hiring outlook, and the ladder puts the rate between 4.1% and 4.2%. The model's case rests on a partial reversal of last week's move, which gives 4.16% in seven days.

## The numbers

- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 4.11% ([the market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxu3))
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 4.13%
- The market closes: 4 Dec 2026
- How it resolves: If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.7% in November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 44 days: off by 0.03 points against 0.04 points for standing still; closer on 29 of 44 days
- Fitted on 54 days of history

## How the model works

The ladder's implied unemployment rate has tended to partly reverse its last week's move, so the model starts from today's level and applies that pull back.

- Each point the implied rate moved over the past week is followed by a move of -0.411 of that size in the next week, which means a partial reversal. DataSnack's author expected -0.4; the data say -0.411 ± 0.2, fitted on the same days the replay scores. Fits past data roughly.

## Sources

- Unemployment in November (the market's number): 4.11% on 11 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 4.16%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 4.14%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 4.09%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 4.10%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 4.12%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 4.12%
- Made 11 Nov 2026 for 18 Nov 2026: 4.12%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says 4.13% seven days from now.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Kalshi) is 4.11%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

**Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet?** Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:27356e8f2fee.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:27356e8f2fee · Updated 8 Nov 2026 10:15 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.