Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Polymarket) is 42% (10 Nov 2026). It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

A ceasefire waits on sequencing, and each side holds a veto over it

The market puts a ceasefire by December 31, 2027 at 42%, and the gap with the strict end-2026 market at 7.5% shows how much rides on definitions. The model's case rests on the market's 38% in seven days, with no new event.

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 42% (the market)
• DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
• The market closes: 31 Dec 2026
• How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engage…
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 9 days: off by 4.5 points against 1.9 points for standing still; closer on 1 of 9 days
• Fitted on 14 days of history

How the model works

With no new event, the chance of a ceasefire by the date decays as the remaining window shrinks, so the model applies a hazard decay to the market's own number.

• With no ceasefire this week, the chance shrinks as the window shortens, at 1 of a constant hazard. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.

Sources

• Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? · December 31, 2027: 42% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 39%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 37%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 37%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 37%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 37%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 37%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 42%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:2a6fdbf9959d · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:57 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.