Next Press Secretary announced by...?

DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Polymarket) is 77% (10 Nov 2026). It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

A vacancy with no named successor is priced as a matter of when, not whether

A new press secretary sets the administration's public line, so the timing matters beyond this market. The model's case rests on no change from 68% in seven days, and it scored 6.9 points a day, the same as assuming no change.

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 77% (the market)
• DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
• The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
• How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces a new White House Press Secretary to replace Katie Zacharia between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An individual announced as an acting or interim Press Secretary will not qualify toward this market's resolution. Any qualifying announcement made within this market's time frame will count, regardless of when the new Press Secretary is sworn in or begins serving. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the…
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 13 days: off by 6.9 points against 6.9 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 13 days
• Fitted on 18 days of history

How the model works

Nothing is ranked because the market is too new to measure. The chance of an announcement by December 31 decays toward the close if nothing is announced this week.

• With no announcement this week, the chance shrinks as the window closes, at 0 of a constant-hazard pace. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

Sources

• Next Press Secretary announced by...? · December 31: 77% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 69%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 63%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 74%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 72%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 72%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 78%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 77%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:2c08091ac872 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:55 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.