US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
DataSnack's model puts this at 37% seven days from now (8 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 34%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A deal waits on the blockade, and neither side will move first
A Hormuz deal decides whether shipping through the strait, down about 65% from pre-conflict levels, normalizes. The model's 38% in seven days rests on window decay, talks news and the 10-year yield, against 34% now.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 34% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 37%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Ho…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 32 days: off by 3.0 points against 4.4 points for standing still; closer on 24 of 32 days
- Fitted on 36 days of history
How the model works
The chance of a by-date deal shrinks as the window closes. The talks reading adds news that can lift it, and the 10-year Treasury yield, which the scan found moves against the market's number, is read over 14 days to temper it.
- With no deal this week, the chance of an agreement by year-end shrinks as the window closes, at 0.18 of a constant-hazard pace. DataSnack's author expected 0.17; the data say 0.18, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
- Each unit rise in the reading of Qatar-mediated talks progress moves the chance by 0.506 in log-odds in log-odds. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
- Each percentage point rise in the 10-year Treasury yield over two weeks moves the chance by -0.39 in the following week. DataSnack's author expected -0.3; the data say -0.39 ± 0.26, fitted on the same days the replay scores. Fits past data roughly.
Sources
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? · December 31: 34% on 10 Nov 2026
- Reading: Qatar-mediated US-Iran talks making progress: 0.6 score on 10 Nov 2026
- 10-year Treasury yield (FRED): 4.86% on 6 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 35%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 32%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 40%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 36%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 40%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 37%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 37% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 34%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:2c10ef1bc13a · Updated 8 Nov 2026 04:40 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.