Presidential Election Winner 2028
DataSnack's model puts this at 18% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 17%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
The 2028 field is priced on the party's wave, and Ossoff is its stand-in
The Democratic side is put at 67.5% while Ossoff and Vance sit at 18% each, so the party is priced ahead of any person. The model's case rests on part of Ossoff's jump reversing, giving 22% in seven days against 18% now.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 17% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 18%
- The market closes: 8 Nov 2028
- How it resolves: The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 1.0 points against 1.0 points for standing still; closer on 31 of 60 days
- Fitted on 233 days of history
How the model works
Ossoff's price jumped after the midterm results. The model starts from the market's own price, lets part of the recent jump reverse, and then adds the news reading of Ossoff's Senate win, which carries the midterm result flow the old model missed.
- After a sharp jump, the market gives back about 0.113 in log-odds of the move over the following week. DataSnack's author expected 0.113 in log-odds; the data say 0.113 in log-odds ± 0.058. A rough rule.
- Each rise in the reading of Ossoff's Georgia Senate win in the news shifts his 2028 log-odds by about 0 in log-odds over the next week. DataSnack's author expected 0.285 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.19. A rough rule.
Sources
- Presidential Election Winner 2028 · Jon Ossoff: 17% on 10 Nov 2026
- Ossoff Georgia Senate win in the news: 0 score on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 23%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 22%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 19%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 19%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 18%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 19%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 18% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 17%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:2c6401ec3989 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:05 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.