Anthropic IPO Date

DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Polymarket) is 5% (10 Nov 2026). It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Anthropic's listing date is set by SEC rules; the market stress lands on price

A cut valuation would be the first read on pricing for other AI listings. The model's case rests on the shrinking window to Nov 30, but it missed the Oct 29 climb by 20.9 points and trails no-change replay, 9.4 to 7.3.

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 5% (the market)
• DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
• The market closes: 1 Dec 2026
• How it resolves: This market will resolve based on the date, in Eastern Time, that Anthropic launches its Initial Public Offering (IPO). An IPO refers to the first public sale of shares by the listed company on a recognized stock exchange. If no IPO occurs by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by November 30, 2026". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official listing page of the relevant exchange; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 4 days: off by 9.4 points against 7.3 points for standing still; closer on 1 of 4 days
• Fitted on 9 days of history

How the model works

With 25 days left and the earliest debut around Nov 16, the chance of no IPO by Nov 30 drifts down as the window shrinks unless the debut slips. The model applies that decay, then adds a small push from reports that the valuation is being cut, which could delay pricing.

• With no listing this week, the chance of no IPO by the end of November moves at 1 of the pace a constant weekly hazard would imply. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
• Each full point of rise in stories saying the valuation is being cut moves the chance of no IPO by 0.3 in log-odds in log-odds, since a price fight can push the debut later. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.

Sources

• Anthropic IPO Date · No IPO by November 30, 2026: 5% on 10 Nov 2026
• Reading: stories say the Anthropic IPO valuation is being cut: 0.75 score on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 25%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 37%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 17%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 16%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 15%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 4%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 5%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:2ca080c81476 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 12:02 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.