Next Prime Minister of Sweden
DataSnack's model puts this at 49% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 49%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
The Centre Party's veto, not the 176-seat count, decides who governs Sweden
The outcome shows whether Sweden's blocs can form a government without the Sweden Democrats. The model's case rests on Andersson's 46% holding near its level, but it missed the gridlock news; Centre's one-week deadline tests it.</p>
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 49% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 49%
- The market closes: 1 Jul 2027
- How it resolves: Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 5.6 points against 5.6 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 60 days
- Fitted on 271 days of history
How the model works
The number stays near its current level. The scan shows that a rise over the last 14 days tended to be followed by a partial pullback, so the model applies that reversal to Andersson's own chance.
- About 0 in log-odds of the last two weeks' move in Andersson's chance carries into next week, so a negative value means part of the move reverses. DataSnack's author expected -0.35 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.36. A rough rule.
Sources
- Next Prime Minister of Sweden · Magdalena Andersson: 49% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 73%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 71%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 47%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 44%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 42%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 44%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 49% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 49%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:2d78ce1b3902 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 13:45 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.