Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
DataSnack's model puts this at 99% seven days from now (8 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 100%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Talks are near-certain because meeting is cheap; a ceasefire is the costly step
Talks by year-end matter as the entry point to a ceasefire the research page prices far lower, at 7.5% for the strict version. The model's case rests on the window shrinking, at 95% in seven days, and it only matches standing still.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 100% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 99%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for e…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 51 days: off by 11.7 points against 11.8 points for standing still; closer on 28 of 51 days
- Fitted on 138 days of history
How the model works
With the market at 96% and 56 days left, the chance of a meeting by year-end mostly drifts toward the base rate as the window shrinks. The decay is built first, then the ceasefire-agreement market is added to capture the shift in expectations for a deal.
- With no meeting this week, the chance of talks by year-end shrinks at 0.71 times the pace of a constant hazard as the window closes. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0.71. A rough rule.
- A move in the ceasefire-agreement market over two weeks shifts the talks chance by 0 in log-odds in log-odds per unit of change. DataSnack's author expected 1 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 4.1, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? · December 31: 100% on 10 Nov 2026
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? · October 31, 2027: 66% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 95%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 95%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 96%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 96%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 97%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 99%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 99% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 100%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:2d95c3473aae · Updated 8 Nov 2026 09:03 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.