Gas prices in the US in Nov 2026?
DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Kalshi) is 3.65 number (7 Nov 2026). It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 13 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Pump prices lag a steep wholesale drop, and Iran policy sets how far they fall
Retail gas matters for inflation and corporate margins. The model's case rests on a 3.83 forecast, close to today's 3.82, with futures implying $3.65 against a $4.01 AAA average and Iran policy the main risk.}
The numbers
- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 3.65 number (the market)
- DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
- The market closes: 30 Nov 2026
- How it resolves: If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $2.50 on Nov 30, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 13 Nov 2026.
- Fitted on 1 days of history
How the model works
Nothing is ranked yet and the market's own series has only four points, so the model starts from the implied pump price and adds a share of its recent move over a short window. Seasonal relief and cheaper winter-blend fuel pull prices down, while crude near $90 to $100 and Hormuz risk limit how far they fall.
- About 0.3 of the recent move in the implied pump price carries into the next week as seasonal relief fades slowly. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
Sources
- Gas prices in the US in Nov 2026? (the market's number): 3.65 number on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 13 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 3.83 number
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 3.83 number
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 3.82 number
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 3.81 number
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 3.68 number
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 3.65 number.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 13 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:2e494a928de6 · Updated 7 Nov 2026 06:26 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.