# Gas prices in the US in Nov 2026?

DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Kalshi) is 3.65 number (7 Nov 2026). It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 13 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**Pump prices lag a steep wholesale drop, and Iran policy sets how far they fall**

Retail gas matters for inflation and corporate margins. The model's case rests on a 3.83 forecast, close to today's 3.82, with futures implying $3.65 against a $4.01 AAA average and Iran policy the main risk.}

## The numbers

- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 3.65 number ([the market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaaagasm))
- DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
- The market closes: 30 Nov 2026
- How it resolves: If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $2.50 on Nov 30, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 13 Nov 2026.
- Fitted on 1 days of history

## How the model works

Nothing is ranked yet and the market's own series has only four points, so the model starts from the implied pump price and adds a share of its recent move over a short window. Seasonal relief and cheaper winter-blend fuel pull prices down, while crude near $90 to $100 and Hormuz risk limit how far they fall.

- About 0.3 of the recent move in the implied pump price carries into the next week as seasonal relief fades slowly. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.

## Sources

- Gas prices in the US in Nov 2026? (the market's number): 3.65 number on 10 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 13 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 3.83 number
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 3.83 number
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 3.82 number
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 3.81 number
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 3.68 number

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Kalshi) is 3.65 number.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 13 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:2e494a928de6 · Updated 7 Nov 2026 06:26 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.