Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
DataSnack's model puts this at 23% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 26%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Hegseth's tenure turns on Trump, not on the House that can impeach him
Trump's backing of a Pentagon chief tied to a $1.5 trillion budget shows how he treats Congress after the midterm loss. The model's case rests on the exit chance decaying as the window shortens, plus a Fed-hike reading.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 26% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 23%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 4.4 points against 4.2 points for standing still; closer on 26 of 60 days
- Fitted on 200 days of history
How the model works
The chance of an exit by a date falls as the window shortens when nothing happens, so the model starts from that decay. It then adds the two-week move in the reading of a Fed December hike, the strongest ranked input the model did not read.
- With no exit this week, the chance shrinks as the window closes, at 1.41 of a constant-hazard pace. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 1.41. A rough rule.
- Each rise in the reading of a Fed December hike over two weeks moves the exit chance by about 0.486 in log-odds in log-odds. DataSnack's author expected 0.42 in log-odds; the data say 0.486 in log-odds ± 0.6. A rough rule.
Sources
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · Yes: 26% on 10 Nov 2026
- Reading: Fed leaning toward a December hike: 0.36 score on 9 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 42%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 37%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 27%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 36%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 37%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 31%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 23% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 26%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:2ee5aed5d88c · Updated 10 Nov 2026 17:24 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.