Anthropic IPO by __?
DataSnack's model puts this at 98% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 98%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
The listing date is fixed by SEC rules; the open variable is the price
A cut valuation would be the first read on pricing for other AI listings. The model's case rests on valuation-cut stories pulling the chance to 88% in seven days; the 10-year Treasury yield link sits at zero.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 98% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 98%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Ant…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 5.3 points against 6.7 points for standing still; closer on 31 of 60 days
- Fitted on 154 days of history
How the model works
The market's chance of an IPO by Dec 31 decays as the window shortens. Valuation-cut stories push it, and market stress seen in the 10-year Treasury yield pushes it further, as the scan measured.
- With no listing this week, the chance of an IPO by year-end drifts at 0 of the pace a constant hazard would imply. DataSnack's author expected 0; the data say 0. A rough rule.
- Each 1.0 rise in the reading that the valuation is being cut moves the market's log-odds by 0.86 in log-odds. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
- Each 1 point rise in the 10-year Treasury yield over a week moves the market's log-odds by 0 in log-odds. DataSnack's author expected -1.2 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 2.7. A rough rule.
Sources
- Anthropic IPO by __? · December 31, 2026: 98% on 10 Nov 2026
- Reading: stories say the Anthropic IPO valuation is being cut: 0.75 score on 10 Nov 2026
- 10-year Treasury yield (FRED): 4.86% on 6 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 73%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 70%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 89%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 89%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 88%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 97%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 98% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 98%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:33b280579db9 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 11:57 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.