Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
DataSnack's model puts this at 29% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 34%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Both sides want a deal, but neither will move first on the blockade
Who sits at the table signals how serious the US and Iran are about a deal, and the blockade is the price. The model's case rests on a 30% reading in seven days, a shrinking window and a tendency for recent rises to fade.}
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 34% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 29%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirec…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 10.4 points against 11.5 points for standing still; closer on 27 of 60 days
- Fitted on 83 days of history
How the model works
The chance that this negotiator attends talks by year end shrinks as the window runs down, and the market has tended to give back its recent 14-day moves over the following week. Together these are a mild pull back from the latest price.
- With no meeting this week, the chance of attendance by year end decays at 0.43 of a constant-hazard pace as the window shortens. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0.43, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
- After a 14-day rise in this market, about -0.468 in log-odds of the move tends to reverse over the next week. DataSnack's author expected -0.5 in log-odds; the data say -0.468 in log-odds ± 0.24, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? · Kazem Gharibabadi: 34% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 32%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 33%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 26%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 26%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 28%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 29%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 29% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 34%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:347c315850bd · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:11 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.