Where will Ships through Bab el-Mandeb be in seven days?
Where will Ships through Bab el-Mandeb be in seven days? DataSnack's model says 23.8 ships/day; it is 24 ships/day now. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 20 Nov 2026.
The numbers
- Ships through Bab el-Mandeb now: 24 ships/day
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 23.8 ships/day
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 20 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 5.32 against 5.57 for standing still; closer on 31 of 60 days
- Fitted on 359 days of history
How the model works
Daily transits through Bab el-Mandeb move slowly, so the best guess for next week is today's count plus a small share of the last week's change. The ranked inputs are unrelated to shipping, so none are used.
- About 0.0275 of last week's change in daily transits carries into the next week. DataSnack's author expected 0.2; the data say 0.0275 ± 0.12. A rough rule.
Sources
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait: ships crossing per day (IMF PortWatch): 24 ships/day on 8 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 20 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 13 Nov 2026 for 20 Nov 2026: 23.8 ships/day
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 23.8 ships/day seven days from now.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 20 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet? Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:34de6e90c370.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:34de6e90c370 · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.