# Will the SAVE Act become law?

DataSnack's model puts this at 2% seven days from now (8 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 2%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**A Democratic Congress turns a stalled SAVE Act into a question of the calendar**

The number reads how far the midterm result closes off Republican legislative priorities before the session ends. The model's case rests on time decay with no vote scheduled, plus the reading that Democrats won both chambers.

## The numbers

- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 2% ([the market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsaveact))
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 2%
- The market closes: 4 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: If the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 0.6 points against 0.7 points for standing still; closer on 31 of 60 days
- Fitted on 393 days of history

## How the model works

With no vote scheduled before the close, the chance of the SAVE Act becoming law drifts down as time runs out, and news that Democrats won Congress shifts the odds further.

- With nothing scheduled, the chance of passage by the close shrinks at 1.1 of the pace of a constant hazard as the window shortens. DataSnack's author expected 1.09; the data say 1.1. A rough rule.
- Each full point the reading of a Democratic sweep rises moves the market's odds by 0.7 in log-odds in log-odds over the following week. DataSnack's author expected 0.69 in log-odds; the data say 0.7 in log-odds ± 1.5. A rough rule.

## Sources

- Will the SAVE Act become law? · Yes: 2% on 11 Nov 2026
- Reading: Democrats called winners of both chambers: 0.91 score on 9 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 2%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 2%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 1%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 1%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 2%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 3%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says 2% seven days from now.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Kalshi) is 2%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

**Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet?** Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:35225339f3bc.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:35225339f3bc · Updated 8 Nov 2026 04:50 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.