# Best AI this month

DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Kalshi) is 78% (8 Nov 2026). It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**Gemini's lead rests on a restricted model, and Anthropic has just shipped**

The Arena rank sets the narrative for enterprise buyers. The model's case rests on Gemini 4 Carbon's Oct 28 lead, with a replay error of 2.2 points a day versus 7.0 for standing still, though Fable 5.2 is untested on Arena.}

## The numbers

- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 78% ([the market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxllm1))
- DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
- The market closes: 30 Nov 2026
- How it resolves: If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Fitted on 3 days of history

## How the model works

Gemini 4 Carbon took the top spot on Oct 28, so the market starts at 75% and mostly stays put. It follows the sister November market for Google, with a possible Claude Mythos 5.5 release as the main risk to the lead.

- About 0.3 in log-odds of each move in the other November market's chance for Google carries into this market's chance over the next week. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.

## Sources

- Which company has the best AI model end of November? · Google: 77% on 10 Nov 2026
- Best AI this month · Gemini: 78% on 10 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 74%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 77%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 78%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 79%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 75%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 75%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Kalshi) is 78%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:39139054db4a · Updated 8 Nov 2026 04:35 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.