Will GameStop acquire eBay?
DataSnack's model puts this at 2% seven days from now (7 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 2%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A GameStop-eBay deal is a long shot that fades as the year-end deadline nears
A deal would signal how far a retailer can reach into marketplaces, and the market puts it at 4%. The model's case rests on time decay with no news and a partial reversal of recent moves, which leaves 4% in seven days.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 2% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 2%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that eBay will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with GameStop, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mergers or acquisitions involving eBay or its parent company, eBay Inc., and GameStop or its parent company (if applicable), will qualify. An announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 0.9 points against 0.9 points for standing still; closer on 8 of 60 days
- Fitted on 178 days of history
How the model works
A by-date long-shot loses chance as the deadline nears without news. On top of that decay, a recent jump or drop in the market's chance partly reverses in the following week, as the scan shows.
- With no announcement this week, the chance shrinks as the window closes, at 0 of the pace of a constant hazard. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0. A rough rule.
- A recent move in the market tends to partly reverse, by -0.144 in log-odds of the move over the next week. DataSnack's author expected -0.3 in log-odds; the data say -0.144 in log-odds ± 0.44. A rough rule.
Sources
- Will GameStop acquire eBay? · Yes: 2% on 11 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 4%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 2%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 2%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 2%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 2%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 2%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 2% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 2%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet? Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:3d20b047d34f.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:3d20b047d34f · Updated 7 Nov 2026 05:10 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.