Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
DataSnack's model puts this at 7% seven days from now (8 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 8%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Closure odds hinge on a shipping-call threshold, not on headlines
A closure of Bab el-Mandeb would reroute global shipping, and this market resolves only if IMF PortWatch's 7-day average of transit calls falls to 10 or below. The model's case rests on decay: 7% in seven days if no new event occurs.}
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 8% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 7%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 2.3 points against 2.5 points for standing still; closer on 37 of 60 days
- Fitted on 114 days of history
How the model works
With no event this week, the chance of closure by the date shrinks as the window to the date shortens. The decay is set gently so the model stays close to standing still, since the market's weekly moves are small.
- With no new event this week, the chance shrinks as the window shortens, at 0.6 of the pace of a constant hazard. DataSnack's author expected 0.3; the data say 0.6. A rough rule.
Sources
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? · December 31: 8% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 7%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 7%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 9%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 9%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 7%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 7%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 7% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 8%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:3dcb42fed129 · Updated 8 Nov 2026 07:37 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.