US gas prices this week

DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Kalshi) is 3.82 number. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 16 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Pump prices are lagging wholesale gasoline, so the slide has room to run

Gas prices feed inflation and corporate margins, and the market puts the chance of staying above 3.8200 at 53%. The model's case rests on pump prices continuing to drift down, with about 0.3 of each recent AAA move carrying forward.

The numbers

• The market's number (Kalshi) now: 3.82 number (the market)
• DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
• The market closes: 16 Nov 2026
• How it resolves: If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.8000 on Nov 16, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 16 Nov 2026.

How the model works

The ladder's implied price is a week-ahead forecast of the AAA national average. Pump prices are sliding seasonally as crude and wholesale gasoline fall, so the model starts at the market's number and adds a share of the recent AAA move. The market's number already sits well below the AAA price, consistent with continued declines.

• About 0.3 of each recent move in the AAA national average carries into the market's implied price a week on. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.

Sources

• US regular gasoline, national average (AAA): $4.02/gal on 8 Nov 2026
• US gas prices this week (the market's number): 3.82 number on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 16 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 3.8 number
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 3.8 number

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 3.82 number.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 16 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:3ec5036660ff · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.