# US gas prices this week

DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Kalshi) is 3.82 number. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 16 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**Pump prices are lagging wholesale gasoline, so the slide has room to run**

Gas prices feed inflation and corporate margins, and the market puts the chance of staying above 3.8200 at 53%. The model's case rests on pump prices continuing to drift down, with about 0.3 of each recent AAA move carrying forward.

## The numbers

- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 3.82 number ([the market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaaagasw))
- DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
- The market closes: 16 Nov 2026
- How it resolves: If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.8000 on Nov 16, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 16 Nov 2026.

## How the model works

The ladder's implied price is a week-ahead forecast of the AAA national average. Pump prices are sliding seasonally as crude and wholesale gasoline fall, so the model starts at the market's number and adds a share of the recent AAA move. The market's number already sits well below the AAA price, consistent with continued declines.

- About 0.3 of each recent move in the AAA national average carries into the market's implied price a week on. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.

## Sources

- US regular gasoline, national average (AAA): $4.02/gal on 8 Nov 2026
- US gas prices this week (the market's number): 3.82 number on 10 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 16 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 3.8 number
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 3.8 number

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Kalshi) is 3.82 number.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 16 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:3ec5036660ff · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.