Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Polymarket) is 100%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 16 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

A ceasefire that can fail on any day decays with the calendar, not the news

The ceasefire number frames how the Gulf, shipping and blockade talks are read. The model's case rests on the window shrinking with no strike, 99% in seven days, though its replay missed by 32.1 points a day against 27.9 for no change.

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 100% (the market)
• DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
• The market closes: 31 Dec 2026
• How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other co…
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 16 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 4 days: off by 32.1 points against 27.9 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 4 days
• Fitted on 4 days of history

How the model works

The ceasefire question is by_date: it can fail on any day until the close, so with no strike this week the chance of it lasting drifts down as the window shortens. The hazard link models that drift from the market's own latest number.

• With no strike this week, the chance the ceasefire lasts to the close shrinks as the window shrinks, at 1 of a constant hazard. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.

Sources

• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? · November 7: 100% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 16 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 99%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 99%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 100%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 16 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:417fec01291f · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.