Putin out as President of Russia by...?
DataSnack's model puts this at 8% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 9%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Putin's exit odds track the calendar, not signs of stress inside the regime
An exit matters as a gauge of regime stability while Abu Dhabi talks test a settlement. The model's case rests on a 9% reading in seven days, with the ceasefire and NATO-clash markets moving opposite to this one.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 9% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 8%
- The market closes: 1 Jul 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within thi…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 41 days: off by 0.5 points against 0.7 points for standing still; closer on 24 of 41 days
- Fitted on 120 days of history
How the model works
With no exit event, the chance of Putin leaving by the close decays as the window shrinks. Two small adjustments read the ceasefire-agreement market and the NATO-Russia clash market, which the scan found moving opposite to this market.
- With no exit event this week, the chance shrinks as the window closes, at 2 of a constant-hazard pace. DataSnack's author expected 2; the data say 2. Fits past data roughly.
- Each rise in the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire-agreement market moves the chance of Putin leaving by -0.285 in log-odds in log-odds, over the scan's 14-day window. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
- Each rise in the NATO-Russia clash market moves the chance of Putin leaving by -0.0922 in log-odds in log-odds, over the scan's 14-day window. DataSnack's author expected -0.11 in log-odds; the data say -0.0922 in log-odds ± 0.053, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- Putin out as President of Russia by...? · June 30, 2027: 9% on 10 Nov 2026
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? · November 30, 2027: 68% on 10 Nov 2026
- NATO x Russia military clash by...? · December 31: 12% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 8%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 9%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 9%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 8%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 8%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 8%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 8% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 9%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:46ad74d21822 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:35 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.