Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

DataSnack's model puts this at 2% seven days from now (7 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 2%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Washington has made UFO disclosure a process, not a conclusion

The gap between 77.9% for more files and 2% for confirmation shows how markets read transparency. The model's case rests on the shrinking window to year-end; it is off by 0.6 points a day, level with assuming no change.

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 2% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 2%
• The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
• How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 60 days: off by 0.6 points against 0.6 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 60 days
• Fitted on 318 days of history

How the model works

With no disclosure event so far, the chance of an official confirmation by year-end shrinks as the remaining window shortens. The model starts from the market's own number and applies that decay.

• With no confirmation this week, the chance decays at 0 of the pace of a constant hazard as the window to year-end shrinks. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0. A rough rule.

Sources

• Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? · Yes: 2% on 11 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 2%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 2%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 2%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 2%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 2%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 2%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 2% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 2%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet? Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:4afa3fac3a29.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:4afa3fac3a29 · Updated 7 Nov 2026 04:39 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.